Voting has been going on since Monday morning (Pakistani time). These are major elections.
LAHORE, Pakistan — Fearful of violence and deterred by confusion at polling stations, Pakistanis voted Monday in parliamentary elections that may fail to produce clear winners and could result in protracted post-election political skirmishing…
A number of clashes among polling officials and voters resulted in 10 people killed and 70 injured, according to Pakistani television channels.
Voter turnout was low; in the North-West Frontier Province, which abuts the lawless tribal areas, turnout was only 20 percent, according to election officials. In Peshawar, the provincial capital, Islamic militants prevented many women from voting. Election officials estimated that only 523 of 6,431 registered female voters at six polling stations cast ballots.
Pakistan also has a history of rigged elections, so watch out for possible fixing there. Look for the religious Sharia parties to fare poorly.
This piece here from WashingtonPost’s Post Global by analyst Haider Mullick seems the most perspicacious of any I’ve come across. Mullick argues that no party will win a plurality. He’s hoping for a coalition of pro-Musharraf parties along with Bhutto’s and Sharif’s parties (anti-Musharraf at the moment).
He writes:
Realistically, free, fair and secure Pakistani elections are a longshot. But if the rigging is controlled, the results of February 18 may at least create a semblance of credibility. In the Pakistani context, credibility means acceptability by the major political parties. If Musharraf works with the opposition, he can bring stability. However, if he decides to discredit the entire electoral process, Pakistan will plunge into anarchy. The second option is highly unlikely because the stakes are simply too high.
I would not write off the second possibility so quickly. Musharraf is a megalomaniac who sees the nation of Pakistan as co-terminus with his body a la Louis XIV. His popularity is in the toilet, his regime with the firing of the Supreme Court Justice has been unmasked as dictatorial/authoritarian, and I’m not sure whether he will practically cede power if he takes an electoral loss today.
