Update XIII: 1:11 PM EST. Clinton does win it. But loses the night. I’m signing off. Peace.
Update XII 12:25 EST. Maddow just went integral–she talked about Clinton as “post-rational.” I think she means pre-rational. She should consult the pre-trans fallacy.
Update XI 12:14 EST. Funny Moment. Russert just said the Clintons were like the “Adams Family” (and then the Roosevelts). It took me a second to realize he meant John and John Quincy not Wednesday, Cousin It, and Uncle Fester. Although maybe the latter is more appropriate?
Update X: 11:57 PM (EST)–These are nights when I’m glad I live on the West Coast. It’s just finally getting totally dark here, only 9 pm. But Russert just said a very shrewd thing. Clinton stays in wins WV next week, then stays in another week wins KY, Obama wins Oregon at which point he will have crossed the threshold whereby he has won the majority of the pledged delegates (primaries and caucuses). That allows Clinton to get out on a high note, on a win, the same night Obama gets to claim victory–via the pledged delegate count. Perfect scenario.
[I should also say the Gary Mayor does looks not great. But the Clinton-verse bloggers, small though they are, are living in a different universe. It hasn't set in yet that it is over as of tonight. e.g. Here. ]
Update IX 11:44 PM (EST):
Gary is still out. And word from the Mayor on MSNBC was that he was essentially predicting massive massive turnout for Obama. Chuck Todd made an interesting watch for “irregularities” in that vote line that was well said. Perhaps The Resurrection Plan is back in effect. It is near-Chicago after all. [That was when the Mafia had dead people vote for JFK in '60 in Chicago].
Hold onto your hanging chads. It’s down to 18,000 with 9% remaining pretty much all apparently in Gary.
With 28% in Lake County, Obama is winning 75-25. He needs about 60% to cover the difference. Wow.
Update VIII: 11:20 PM (EST). Best Line of the Night from Poblano:
9:40 PM. Isn’t there something ironic about a candidate who’s only remaining path to the nomination to insist that all votes are counted in Florida and Michigan giving a victory speech before all votes are counted in Indiana — and three of the four major networks say the race is too close to call?
Short answer: Yes.
Little longer: Rachel Maddow contra all the other MSNBC guys (Buchanan, Eugene Robinson, David Gregory, Olbermann, and Matthews) thinks Clinton is going scorched earth–which is why she has raised Michigan and Florida. I think Terry McAuliffe (Clinton’s Co-Chair) raised the bar from needing 2,025 to 2,209 delegates earlier in the night when he thought she was going to have a good night. That formulation I think changes. She is going to meet with her superdelegates tomorrow. They better tell her to face reality.
Update VII: The Obama MI-FL “well seat ‘em” meme is already out. Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Camp is playing the magnanimous way–which is smart for tonight. If she tries to hit him
Olbermann just raised the Huckabee parallel possibility. i.e. West Virginia and Kentucky could be like Huckabee’s wins even after he was mathematically eliminated. Further argument to that point here on TPM.
Russert just mentioned Clinton may have loaned herself more money.
This is moving quickly to a wind up. But Clinton needs to stay in, according to Kos, because Obama can’t lose big in WV next week after becoming the nominee. Not good optics.
Harold Ford Jr., who predicted that the winner of North Carolina would be the nominee a month and half ago, also raised the Unity Ticket theme. (more…)