superd’s update

To quote Stephen Colbert, “I called it.”  Here.

I said that Obama passing Clinton in superdelegates would take away the final arrow in the Clinton quiver so that even her upcoming wins in WV and KY would likely be (mostly) ignored.

NyTimes and ABCNews have Obama as of today passing Clinton.

First Read has Obama within 4.  He has picked up net 7 just today.  And doing so on Friday adds further talking points for the Sunday talk shows.

And one other big superdelegate on the horizon (with himself 30+ other delegates pledged to him he could release)? [from NyTimes article]:

Appearing on MSNBC this morning, John Edwards said he was “very likely” to endorse the candidate he voted for in the North Carolina primary on Tuesday. But, the anchors asked, which candidate was it?

In his demurral, Mr. Edwards may have slipped: “I just voted — I just voted for him on Tuesday,” he said. But given Mr. Edwards’s Southern accent, that pesky pronoun may have been plural, albeit in a shortened form: “I just voted for ’em on Tuesday.”

David Schuster, an MSNBC host, attempted to ferret out the truth. “So it was a him or a her that you voted for?” he asked, interrupting the former senator. Mr. Edwards then backpedaled, saying, “No, no,” and laughing.

Obama has already shifted into general election.  If you want to see the preview of how this general will be, Obama’s strategy against McCain, the text of his speech today in Oregon here.  He looks gracious to Hillary in all his recent interviews, meanwhile she is still attacking him and is headed into further irrelevance.  The more of that she does, the quicker these superdelegates keep coming for Obama.

Liveblogging Dem Primary

Update XIII: 1:11 PM EST.  Clinton does win it.  But loses the night.  I’m signing off.  Peace.

Update XII 12:25 EST. Maddow just went integral–she talked about Clinton as “post-rational.” I think she means pre-rational. She should consult the pre-trans fallacy.

Update XI 12:14 EST. Funny Moment. Russert just said the Clintons were like the “Adams Family” (and then the Roosevelts). It took me a second to realize he meant John and John Quincy not Wednesday, Cousin It, and Uncle Fester. Although maybe the latter is more appropriate?

Update X: 11:57 PM (EST)–These are nights when I’m glad I live on the West Coast. It’s just finally getting totally dark here, only 9 pm. But Russert just said a very shrewd thing. Clinton stays in wins WV next week, then stays in another week wins KY, Obama wins Oregon at which point he will have crossed the threshold whereby he has won the majority of the pledged delegates (primaries and caucuses). That allows Clinton to get out on a high note, on a win, the same night Obama gets to claim victory–via the pledged delegate count. Perfect scenario.

[I should also say the Gary Mayor does looks not great. But the Clinton-verse bloggers, small though they are, are living in a different universe. It hasn't set in yet that it is over as of tonight. e.g. Here. ]

Update IX 11:44 PM (EST):

Gary is still out. And word from the Mayor on MSNBC was that he was essentially predicting massive massive turnout for Obama. Chuck Todd made an interesting watch for “irregularities” in that vote line that was well said. Perhaps The Resurrection Plan is back in effect. It is near-Chicago after all. [That was when the Mafia had dead people vote for JFK in '60 in Chicago].

Hold onto your hanging chads. It’s down to 18,000 with 9% remaining pretty much all apparently in Gary.

With 28% in Lake County, Obama is winning 75-25. He needs about 60% to cover the difference. Wow.

Update VIII: 11:20 PM (EST). Best Line of the Night from Poblano:

9:40 PM. Isn’t there something ironic about a candidate who’s only remaining path to the nomination to insist that all votes are counted in Florida and Michigan giving a victory speech before all votes are counted in Indiana — and three of the four major networks say the race is too close to call?

Short answer: Yes.

Little longer: Rachel Maddow contra all the other MSNBC guys (Buchanan, Eugene Robinson, David Gregory, Olbermann, and Matthews) thinks Clinton is going scorched earth–which is why she has raised Michigan and Florida. I think Terry McAuliffe (Clinton’s Co-Chair) raised the bar from needing 2,025 to 2,209 delegates earlier in the night when he thought she was going to have a good night. That formulation I think changes. She is going to meet with her superdelegates tomorrow. They better tell her to face reality.

Update VII: The Obama MI-FL “well seat ‘em” meme is already out. Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Camp is playing the magnanimous way–which is smart for tonight. If she tries to hit him

Olbermann just raised the Huckabee parallel possibility. i.e. West Virginia and Kentucky could be like Huckabee’s wins even after he was mathematically eliminated. Further argument to that point here on TPM.

Russert just mentioned Clinton may have loaned herself more money.

This is moving quickly to a wind up. But Clinton needs to stay in, according to Kos, because Obama can’t lose big in WV next week after becoming the nominee. Not good optics.

Harold Ford Jr., who predicted that the winner of North Carolina would be the nominee a month and half ago, also raised the Unity Ticket theme.

Why Hillary Can’t Win

Karen Tumulty from Time in this piece lays out three scenarios for the Democratic Primary.

1)Obama wins NC and Indiana, superd’s flock to him, Clinton is forced out (or into irrelevance as Obama begins his general election campaign.  The Huckabee-ization of the Clinton campaign in other words).

2)Party leaders end it June. 

All the contests take place, the superdelegates are forced by Dean, Pelosi, and Reid to make up their minds.  No chance Obama loses in this scenario–a forced unity ticket with her on the bottom perhaps, but scenario two is also an Obama win (more on why in a sec). 

3)A Brokered Convention delegate floor fight.    This is the only scenario in which Clinton can win the Democratic nomination. 

But a brokered convention means a loss for the Democrats against McCain period.   With only two months after a convention, McCain will be able to run a biography election, which he will win.

So she can only win the Democratic Primary through the convention, but winning through the convention guarantees (I maintain) a loss in the General.  She can’t run in the General without winning the nomination obviously.  So….up proverbial river sans paddle.

The Obama Hasn’t Won Meme

Steve Clemons (one of my favorite bloggers and thinkers–which you know already means I”m going to disagree with him right?) has this to say on the Dem race:

If Obama had really beaten Hillary Clinton by this point and had offered the Clinton clan an olive branch, this fight between Obama and Clinton fanatics would not be raging.

But Obama has failed to beat Clinton — and she has not beaten him either. The politically mature and, in my view, the shrewd thing to do is to begin negotiating a joint ticket, or the Dems will tear themselves apart.

First on this “If Obama had beaten” meme. Similar to the “Why Can’t Obama Close the Deal?” Meme rolled out in the media and via the Clinton camp.

Obama has gone 9/10 of the way.

He will have beaten her substantially in delegates, in popular vote totals, in number of contests won (nearly 2-1), he as of now has more elected Democrats as superdelegates than she has (she has more SDs overall through party connections and support from Party Chairs, not politicians). He has raised more money than her, ran a better campaign and organization than her.

The elected Democrat Superdelegate haul signals that he has forever cracked The Clinton Machine’s hold on the Democratic Party–though that isn’t getting a great deal of press for now.

What he has not done is land a knock out punch. i.e. That last 1/10 of the way. Indiana represents as an opportunity to take that final step.

In other words, an alternative lens through which to look at this issue is that Clinton has simply managed to hold on and stave off total elimination. She has lost but has not been (totally) defeated. She has done so through hanging on to the last remnants of the New Deal Democratic coalition (the so-called Beer Track Democrats).

Whether that earns her a the VP spot is a different question. Electorally I can see the rationale. In terms of message and politics though I can not.

We have seen a VP who likes secretive power do far too much damage in this administration. The VP office for Clinton and her Nixonian difficulty with truth worries me frankly. I’m not sure she would respect the fact that she is VP, much less Bill (what would he become?). They bring drama. Period. That is who they are. Drama Obama neither wants nor is able to handle.

In Bush’s case it was because he wanted Cheney to be his pit bull. With Obama-Clinton I think it might be more like he couldn’t control her.

Does anyone (including Clemons) think Clinton would take orders from Obama? Really? Both of them? Seriously?

The way out is to offer her the Senate Majority Leader role after she loses Indiana. She has to be given a graceful exit.

As opposed to her counting her Michigan votes this morning on MSNBC and telling me she has won more votes than any other Dem in primary history.  God help us.

polls, polls, more polls

As Indistinct Union predicted, Obama’s real gambit and playground (and “finish her” Mortal Kombat moment) is the Indiana-NC Super Tuesday III May 6th.  This LaTimes poll confirms.

I guarantee he will win NC by more than 13 (probably closer to 20) and any kind of win in Indiana is the death knell.  As a lifelong Buckeye (and neighbor of Hoosier Land) it would be nice to see my friendly neighbors to the West cast the deciding vote.

The “bitter” remarks have seen not to hurt too much in the Dem primary (just as with the Rev.Wright [non]controversy).  But no doubt it will be back come the general.

We will see whether her upcoming win in Penn. gives her any boost.  Delegate wise it will not.

Exit question:  Yet again–What is Hillary Clinton still doing in this race?

Harold Ford’s Dem Prediction

I  just heard Ford (readers of this blog will know I have high regard for his opinions on political matters) say on MSNBC that the winner of North Carolina will be the nominee of the Democratic Primary.

Obama will win North Carolina.  And big.  Kos whose sense of these matters is often quite accurate, predicts a 20% Obama win in NC. Huge number of colleges, information economy sector vote in Charlotte particularly, and large numbers of African American voters.  That’s his wheelhouse.

BHO will win more delegates in NC than she will from Penn. And he will be win by a much more significant percentage margin.

If he wins North Carolina and Indiana (which will be closer), then it’s 100% over.

If Ford is right–and I think he is–then it’s just further proof of what is already a done deal:  Obama will be the nominee.

The question that still remains:  will Hillary pull back from the brink?  Or alternatively:  who can force her out?  What do they offer her to leave?  Because if she does in the face of clear defeat come out and embrace Obama’s candidacy, then she will win huge brownie points in the party, all this other stuff will become forgotten history as far as Democrats are concerned.