Shia Theocracy in the Iraqi South

My prediction based on the value memes going into the Second Iraqi War was that the country would more or less divide into three regions/ethnic groupings that would break down as following:

Kurds in North: strong/smart authoritarian one-party state (a compromise of the two feudal previously in-fighting Kurdish clans: Barzanis and Talabanis). Healthy blue pushing into orange.

Sunnis in West. Tribal (red) warlordism. [Didn’t predict the rise of a terrorist blue Sunni Salafism]

Shia in South. Powerful on-coming theocratic blue (Shia Rising).

For proof of the last, see the following evidence:

Religious vigilantes have killed at least 40 women this year in the southern Iraqi city of Basra because of how they dressed, their mutilated bodies found with notes warning against “violating Islamic teachings,” the police chief said Sunday. Maj. Gen. Jalil Khalaf blamed sectarian groups that he said were trying to impose a strict interpretation of Islam. They dispatch patrols of motorbikes or unlicensed cars with tinted windows to accost women not wearing traditional dress and head scarves, he added.

Basra, recall in the South is labeled one of the “safe” zones of the country, given that since it is totally Shia, not Shia-Sunni civil war there. Basra is also the home of the major port/oil fields of Iraq (80% of total oil capacity) and is currently a war zone between three Shia (blue) factions: Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (pro-American and pro-Iranian);  The Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr (currently in cease-fire with US Army, generally anti-American occupation, and more nationalist/less pro-Iranian than SIIC); The Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila), a split off of the Sadrist movement.

For fascinating video of this fight in Basra, here (via Democracy Now).  The oil money is grafted by the millions.  The city is run by militias, organized gangs, mafia style.

And now the rise of pathological blue in S. Iraq.  Shia Talibanization.

Note:  [On the use of Spiral Dynamics as a theory with colors, see here].

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Published in: on December 11, 2007 at 12:54 pm  Leave a Comment  
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