Bowers on Nevada Dem Results

Best analysis I’ve read.

Clinton pulled out a narrow victory in Nevada of about 5%. Obama won everywhere outside of Clark county, and so he could have won the whole thing if the Strip precincts and union vote in Clark county had gone his way. However, the insider scoop is that AFSCME out organized the culinary workers on The Strip, (UNITE-HERE apparently has little in the way of political staff), and generally made the difference for Clinton across the county. To put it one way, Obama might have had more unions, but Clinton’s unions just did better. In some ways, that even reinforces one of Clinton’s main campaign arguments: beyond grand speeches and huge rallies, she will be able to work hard and get the job done with “the invisible people,” as she in framing it.

Most of the last tens days in Nevada focused on unions, from the endorsements to the lawsuit over the Strip caucuses. This was definitely the Labor caucus, just as the DNC had designed it to be. In a very real way, the results are emblematic of the divide in the Democratic Party. The NEA tacitly supported Clinton, and AFSCME is now pretty much the flagship union of the AFL-CIO, at least in terms of political organizing. By contrast, SEIU and UNITE-HERE, both of which endorsed Obama in Nevada, are key unions in Change to Win. Old labor beat new labor, just as older Dems beat newer Dems.

He goes on to say this makes Hillary the presumptive front-runner. Perhaps. I think it’s more like a 1 and 1a kinda thing. If Obama wins SC, then I have no clue what happens on Feb. 5th. This race (on both sides) has stopped making sense to me awhile ago. Nobody on either side is getting momentum from primary wins. Expect I guess a long road ahead.

Hillary is getting much more white vote, which hints at the possible effects of the “race discussion”.

Update I:  The “Hussein” (as in Barack Hussein Obama) meme is back.  Listen to a robocall with the repetition of his middle name here.  No report on who or where this came from.

Might as well be “The Muslims are coming, The Muslims are coming…

Published in: on January 19, 2008 at 2:49 pm  Leave a Comment  

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