Predictions Tonight

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Lots of the polls will be wrong. I’m not sure in which ways, but the “science” or “art” of polling has not caught up in many ways to the new forms of communication that people rely on—home phones anyone? Home phones? Hello?

I think it’s going to be a wild night on the Dem side with a few surprises. Again not sure what exactly. The media will of course over-focus on Cali but I think much more important will be Missouri, Arizona (can the Gov’s endorsement help Barack) and how delegates get dispersed in places like TN (where Clinton likely wins the popular vote but may tie for delegates) and NY, especially NYC (where Obama needs to make some headway) vs. New York State (where Clinton wins).

The argument after Nevada and New Hampshire was that Obama had a contingent of blacks, better educated whites (so-called “wine track” Democrats) and young people and therefore was headed to a loss. But I’m thinking what may come out after tonight is that Hillary is in fact the one with the reduced base that can not grow. She has a ceiling (no not a glass one) of 40-45% in a general and we are already seeing that in the primary too.

As the numbers get parsed from tonight and the delegate math goes on, I think this fact will become clearer. Her candidacy can not grow. It can only maintain or go down. Wherever Obama has had time to introduce himself, run his organization (which is far superior to hers), he wins. He wins big time. This is why Super Duper Tuesday does not play to his strengths in many ways, but he has made up extensive ground. And a surprise or two tonight (NJ or Cali delegates win) will start some in the Democratic establishment–not just the border states types who have already backed Obama–but more establishment figures to ask now that the Republicans have their candidate does it make sense to keep fighting each other through a long slough?

It’s going to go beyond tonight, that much is crystal clear. But if somehow, whether by math, number of states, delegates, almost victories in some many states that Hillary should trounce, Obama comes out with the momentum, he is the frontrunner and if and when he becomes the frontrunner this late in the game, then his victory I think will be in the bag.

The states immediately after Super Tuesday line up very well for Obama.

But there is no guarantee Hillary could not herself spin this thing to a bigger victory than it could be for her–the Clintons are the masters of that game.

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Published in: on February 5, 2008 at 3:27 pm  Leave a Comment  

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