S.D. Tuesday Wrap Up

Looks like Hillary may win Cali but that’ll be after I’m in dreamland.  And we’ll have to see how the delegates play out.

One thing that struck me—Hillary’s speech tonight was essentially copied from Obama (watch it here).  Not surprisingly it’s also the best one she’s given.  Which leaves the question:  why choose the imitation when you can have the genuine article?  (Although I guess the reverse argument is that she is change + experience?).

On the Obama side–his geographic spread is impressive.  Extremely impressive.   I predicted that the night would show that Clinton is the weaker general election candidate.  While she did get a nice win in Arizona–the state is occupied by a certain Senator who will be the Republican nominee.  She won Tennessee and Oklahoma in a Dem primary, but nobody thinks she could win that in a General.

Which means she won really the Northeast (MA, NJ, NY) and Cali.  Those are baby blue, navy blue states–that minus a Giuliani–the Republicans can not win.  Any Democrats wins those by default.

But Obama’s wins in South Carolina, Georgia, Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, should peak some interest.  He could put a number of states in play.  I mean think of the possibility of a Black Democrat winning South Carolina and/or Georgia in a General Election.  Mind boggling.  She can not even make that kinda of victory within the realm of possibility (Obama won more votes in the SC Primary than the top two Republicans combined!!! not to mention all the other Dem. votes, substantial in number for Edwards and Clinton).

If Obama wins the upcoming states of Virginia, Maryland, along with his nice wins in Delaware and Conn, he can win in the South, Northeast, Midwest (Iowa anyone???), Upper Midwest, New West, and if he wins Washington (which he should), the Pacific Northwest.  Plus of course he’ll get California in a General.

New Mexico isn’t in tonight yet.  A strong showing there adds the Southwest.   Plus even in his losses in New Hampshire and Nevada he won non-traditional rural vote.  (Like he did in Illinois Senate run).  John McCain could beat Hillary Clinton–could.  He can not beat Obama.  Period.  Full stop.

The only thing that the Democrats could do to lose the next election at this point—is nominate Hillary Clinton.  That wouldn’t automatically make them the lose, but it is the only possible way they could.

Crazy ass prediction time that could throw this whole thing into another gear and send it into the stratosphere.

John Edwards endorses Barack Obama based on tonight.

Al Gore endorses Barack Obama.

If either (or both) of those takes place in the next week–a la the momentum from the Ted Kennedy endorsement–look out.

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Published in: on February 5, 2008 at 10:35 pm  Leave a Comment  

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