Wisconsin Exit Polling: Update Obama Win

From Marc Ambinder:

Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a “college degree.” They’re “less affluent” than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
— Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care… adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.
— Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
— Very few first time voters — only 17%.
— 27% of the electorate were independent
— Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
— Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
— Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.

Exit polling this Democratic cycle has been spotty at best, so that caveat applies. I’m generally suspicious of them, though on last week’s Potomac Primaries they were pretty much dead on.

So could we glean a winner (polls are not closed as I write) out of this information?

The “less affluent”, less college degree numbers would seem to skew towards Hillary.

Change trumps experience equals margins for Obama I would think. 27% Independents also has to look good for the Obama camp. Clinton looked unfair in her attacks–never good in a civil Midwestern state like Wisconsin. Obama beats her on ability on Nov. electability.

Don’t know how the fact of only 27% decided within the last week breaks (push?). Clinton was closer a week out, then seemed to possibly be making some headway with her attacks on Saturday but by Monday looked like Obama was gaining steam and might win by more than the 4-5 points he was ahead in the polls a week ago. Tough call.

I know that the Hillary camp has placed their bets on Ohio and Texas. Of those two, Ohio would be the stronger bet for her. But I think they really need this win in Wisconsin. Big time. It’s true Wisconsin does have the history of Progressive Politics (Robert LaFolette–check out the do) and Madison/college population, and a history of anti-war (all towards Obama) but…

it’s Rust Belt and very similar to Ohio and Penn. in many ways. That on the face should be Hillary country. Esp. the economy/health care issues. And though there are micro arguments on their policy proposals on those fronts, seems that would be hair splitting to much of the electorate (that’s a hunch not an assertion), so if he has the sense of being the more electable, at this point with the Republican nomination wrapped up, I think that gives the edge to Obama. Plus the closeness of Wisconsin to Illinois can’t hurt.

Be an interesting night coming up.

Update I:

Networks have called it for Obama.  He breaks her hold on women (they roughly tied) and white men (post-Edwards dropout) have moved to Obama in major way.

Clinton is now imo hanging on by a thread.  A loss in either Texas or Ohio will cut that last connection.  With McCain hammering Obama in his speeches, there will be major pressure on Hillary to get out, so that the party can unite to take on the Republicans.

Published in: on February 19, 2008 at 4:49 pm  Comments (1)  

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One CommentLeave a comment

  1. i agree. if hillary loses texas or ohio, she should drop out. her own campaign has called them “must win” states. i don’t see this going all the way to the convention or getting really ugly … IF hillary loses texas or ohio. i’m praying for obama victories there, otherwise it’s going to be very bad.

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