While You Weren’t Looking….Obama Edition

clipped from marcambinder.theatlantic.com

Obama Picks Up A Net Of 10 Delegates

15 Mar 2008 10:46 pm

That’s 10 delegates from Iowa, now.

So that means that Hillary Clinton, as of today, needs an extra 10 superdelegates… or an extra 10 pledged delegates… well, all the permutations are evidence.

Again, Hillary Clinton earned nine net delegates in Ohio.

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That’s +10 (he already had 16 projected).  He essentially won another primary today.

Hillary cannot mathematically win—what in the name of Andrew Jackson is she still doing in this race?

The projected number out of the caucauses are only projections (to the state conventions).  Politicking can still all the way up to the state convention as I understand it.

Word was out that Clintons were trying to work the system (after saying a caucus doesn’t count as much as a primary), but were beaten today and perhaps this is a sign of things to come.  Iowa was somewhat special given that Edwards had a strong showing there (as opposed to nowhere else) and then of course dropped out of the race.  His endorsement interestingly looks less and less important as a bunch of his delegates he just lost.

There’s only about 600 pledged (non-super) delegates at this point.  Obama has Oregon, South Dakota, Montana, (and I believe) North Carolina and Indiana in the bag.

Clinton at this point has to win 64% of all pledged delegates left to catch Obama’s total.  When you factor those states he is going to win in (that’s 64% as of right now) that puts her up in the 75% I would bet.  Maybe 80.  She is not going to win Penn 75-25%.  And even if she did (which she won’t) she wouldn’t win 75% of the delegates because of proportional representation.

Speaker Pelosi made a statement on the race saying that superdelegates (h/t TPM) should not vote against the winner of the most delegates.  Thereby yet again signaling she favors Obama without explicitly saying so and consequently losing her neutral position.

Turns out the majority of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates may agree.

So again, what is Hilary still doing in the race?  She is starting to look Mike Huckabee-esque at this point.  She can win a state here or there but has no path to the nomination and seems to be hanging around to force some kind of joint ticket.

For the party, for her own dignity, and for her future political career (which will not be over after this), she needs to get out.  The cynic in me however is convinced she would rather have McCain than Obama be president as her second choice.

For the record it is technically legal for the superdelegates to choose whomever they like.  They are part of the system and to play by the rules as is from the start, they can vote however they wish.  So Clinton wins the argument on that point.  However they would be crazy imo to do so (over-rule the voters) and if they did would guarantee a loss in the General Election (point Camp Obama).  Such a move would cause a major division in the party–particularly this year given the race dynamic involved.

I think superdelegates are dumb.  And if you are going to have them they should be limited only to high-ranking elected party members (Govs and Congress members) plus very very high ranking Dem establishment type (like DNC Chair, ex-presidents and vice presidents).  But all of these state party chairs etc as superdelegates have gotsta go.

Published in: on March 15, 2008 at 9:52 pm  Leave a Comment  
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