Clinton is Done

Why is she still running?  Turns out her campaign is essentially in the red (they have cash for the General but not for the Primary).

And this blistering piece from Politico:

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.

The article then goes to (correctly) blame the media for treating the race as if its close–the Michigan, Florida re-do has not helped in this which is why I always thought the Obama camp should call their bluff, give them Florida, split MI 50/50 and then she would be totally toast.

The other of course piece has been the Wright controversy. As that begins its stabilization/come down period (Richardson endorsement a big plus here), it is absolutely apparent, that she has no way of winning.  Period.  Nada.  Zilch.

Again other than Obama completely screwing up somehow–which is highly unlikely–her only option is the kamikaze mission of taking him down.  But memo to the Clinton Camp:  kamikazes also killed themselves in the process.

It has come out that while the Clinton camp is publicly mum about the Wright controversy, behind the scenes it is stoking it with superdelegates and the media, to keep it going.

The more that comes out (and it is starting to), it backfires on her and still hurts Obama.  Again kamikaze.

There are 566 pledged delegates up for grabs in upcoming contests. Those delegates come from Pennsylvania (158), Guam (4) North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), West Virginia (28), Kentucky (51), Oregon (52), Puerto Rico (55), Montana (16) and South Dakota (15). 

So right off the bat, Obama pulls big wins in Montana, SD, and Oregon (where his endorsement from Richardson was shrewdly and I mean very shrewdly made–check how wild the crowd was in Portland).

North Carolina will likely shift his way or at least be a delegate push more or less.  He probably does well in Indiana.

The politico story imagines her getting 60% of the votes in all those states minus a Florid and Michigan re-vote.  But that is dumb.  She is obviously not going to win the states mentioned (and is she does win IN and/or NC it won’t be 60-40).

There is no other way around this–she is done.  Finito.   There is no way the superdelegates will overturn the party electorate.  Not unless they want to rip the party and lose an otherwise winnable 2008 Election and hand 1600 Pennslyvania Ave. to McCain.

I’ll say again–get out.  Give her a deal to make her walk–give her the Majority Senate Leader (tell Reid to retire).  Don’t give her VP.

It has to be over by mid-May.

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Published in: on March 21, 2008 at 2:04 pm  Comments (3)  
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  1. Interesting thought experiment by Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Dish: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/defending-bill.html

    The “four key states” argument is well conceived, though perhaps not factually accurate, and will probably form the basis of her continued candidacy because it will have some strategic resonance with Democrats who are still smarting over ’04. In the end, though, I agree – girlfriend is toast.

    And I thought it telling that amidst all the talk about an Obama/Clinton ticket (with positions varying depending to whom you’re listening) that Nancy Pelosi was on Stephanopoulos’ This Week saying that she is certain that ticket won’t come together, but wouldn’t say why, other than its her gut feeling. Do you have a VP running mate picked out for Obama? Juma has offered Jim Webb and I’d previously hoped for Biden, but I’m not so sure about that anymore.

    In other news, your take on Nader running (again!)? And did you get my email?

    Cheers.

  2. S,

    Got your email. Will respond shortly.

    Agree with Sullivan that the issue is their sense of entitlement–and then that gets seen as white entitlement/racist on occasion.

    The four states theory is undercut by the Survey USA poll that showed that both Clinton and Obama could beat McCain–Obama by a wider margin–in the electoral college. Though winning differently.

    Obama takes Colorado, Virginia, and the Northwest (which Clinton would lose to McCain). Losing Washington and Oregon is just as bad as losing Ohio.

    McCain is susceptible in Ohio and Michigan however. Probably not Florida and Obama would have some defense to play in the NE (e.g. New Hampshire, maybe New Jersey).

    Webb makes sense certainly. Actually a bunch of Virginians make sense–Gov. Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, or Webb.

    I lean towards Richardson. The only downside I see to him is that he’s kind of Mr. Magooish on occasion and seems to be snake bitten with the media.

    Though truth be told Webb is just as likely to shoot his mouth off on something (plus his temper) and cause some trouble.

    I think if Obama just choose who he wanted it would be Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (from his homestate of Kansas) or maybe Gov. Janet Napolitano from AZ (though against McCain they can’t win AZ). But I think national security dude (and perhaps white and southern) is probably in order.

    Obama-Clinton would be a disaster in so many many ways. Her people wouldn’t listen to his. She wouldn’t take it. Pelosi is technically neutral but clearly pro-Obama. For one reason the Clintons are about the Clintons not the Democratic Party, particularly in the Congress (Pelosi remembers ’94 o too well). Obama is better for the Dems across the country down-ticket.

    And Ralph Nader–f that guy. Total ego maniac. I don’t see him having any effect this time–like in ’04. He needs to go back (imo) to figuring out safety for cars and such. That’s honorable.

    Peace.

    CJ

  3. I found myself wanting to snap Nader’s head off when he announced his run using the EXACT same rhetoric as both 2000 and 2004. He’s like a demon wind up toy stuck on the same settings, almost mindless in his machinations. I mean, go ahead and run if you think it’s important, but have the decency to evolve your reasoning and analysis.

    No rush on the email, just checking.


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