The War (Race) Is Over

So why does the media keep acting as if Hillary Clinton had some quadruple bank shot possibility of winning the Democratic nomination.

Absent a total meltdown by Obama–the old “unless I’m caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy” routine–there is not shot.

Point in fact:

The trickle of Democratic superdelegates declaring for Barack Obama is turning into more of a gusher, fast closing Hillary Clinton’s one lead in the nomination race and ratcheting up pressure on her to defend her candidacy.

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is announcing her support this morning. The Wall Street Journal reported today that all seven Democratic US House members from North Carolina plan to come out for Obama in one fell swoop before that state’s May 6 primary…

She is the 64th superdelegate to endorse Obama since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Obama, boasting a more than 6-1 edge in superdelegate endorsements since Super Tuesday, is quickly catching up to Clinton in that count. He already leads in overall delegates and popular vote heading into the next contest, the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania. The 795 superdelegates — elected officials, party leaders, and others — are likely to decide the nominee because neither Clinton nor Obama appear likely to reach the clinching number just from those delegates awarded by primaries and caucuses. (my emphasis)

The superdelegates who are staying out are not leaning towards Clinton. I would bet most are like Kloubacher had been–clearly leaning Obama but looking for a final knockout punch. Some (like her and Richardson) have clearly determined than absent the final final final blow, the race is getting too destructive and are going to insert themselves shifting the media away from Clinton. Clinton started off with a huge superdelegate lead because of her clout (and her husband’s) within the party.

A little delegate math from Chris Bowers:

Add this all up, and Obama only trails Clinton 245-215 among non-add-on superdelegates. Further, only 253 non-add-on superdelegates are uncommitted. Yet further, I know of at least two more who will be endorsing Obama this week, which will change the totals to 245-217 with 251 undecided. This, of course, does not include Michigan and Florida, since the composition of their delegations remains up in the air.

Starting to slowly wind our way toward the end. It is not hard to see how this will be over in June.

One slight disagreement: it will be over by May 7th (the day after Indian and North Carolina).

Presumably one of those two he knew about is/was Kloubacher. Add on reports that House Democrats from NC will endorse Obama before the primary….if that is correct that’s plus six to Obama in superdelegates. Bringing the total to 245-223 with 245 undecided.

Remember that Obama has a 160+ pledged delegate lead (from caucuses and primaries), which though Clinton can (and probably will) win Pennsylvania, it won’t net her more than I would bet 10 delegates at the most (maybe less). No way she can catch that.

If Clinton can’t pay her bills, the end is in sight.

All she literally has left to hang on is Michigan and Florida. I appreciate that the DNC set up the rules it has to gain some control over the insane nomination process. Seating Michigan and Florida illegally would screw that. On the other hand, this is why I think Obama could seat them and totally reveal Clinton’s house of cards right now.

Keep floating in the press the rumor that they will give her Florida as is as long as she gives Michigan 50/50 and then let it be known she is holding up the seating process for those states. Or just go through Indiana and North Carolina, have her drop out, and then seat them.

But either way it’s going to be over soon enough. Her kamikazee strategy has only hurt her image and not his significantly. She ought to take David Brooks’ advice and go the Huckabee Route. Otherwise with all these Senators endorsing Obama (Casey, Richardson, Kennedy, Leahy, Kloubacher, McCaskill, Dodd) the Senate Halls will be an unwelcoming place for the Junior Senator from NY. If she wants to be Senate Majority Leader (which I think she could get), she is endangering that by her current run.

Oh and by the way, it appears Camp Obama controls the credentials committee on which Clinton is basing her plan to get those states seated.

Oops. Maybe like Texas, the Clinton Camp didn’t learn the rules until after they decided it was their firewall. Oh yeah and Obama won Texas in delegates.

Published in: on March 31, 2008 at 9:56 am  Comments (1)  
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  1. “And the notion that somehow it’s cute or amusing, or a useful diversion, I think, is something that all of us have to recognize is just not the case. We all have First Amendment rights. And I am a constitutional lawyer and strongly believe in free speech, but as a culture, we really have to do some soul-searching to think about what kind of toxic information are we feeding our kids,”

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