Further Evidence Dem Race is Over

From The Hill’s Pundits (h/t Buzzflash):

Behind the scenes there is private movement among some key superdelegates who support Clinton but recognize the inevitable. Public comments are starting to seep out, making the suggestion that if Hillary is behind in elected delegates and popular vote they reserve the right to switch to Obama.

Obama now leads in elected delegates, popular vote, number of states won and fundraising by a large margin, and the superdelegate move to Obama has been almost 100 percent and huge over the last several weeks. Stay tuned — this is much closer to over than the pundits suggest.

This trend is more pronounced privately than publicly. I do not expect major switches before Pennsylvania, at least, but I do expect a growing line of public comments dropping more hints, as we have seen in recent days.

Stay tuned. Don’t believe everything you hear on cable television. The more Clinton threatens to take a divisive fight to the convention, the more superdelegates pull away privately. Obama’s $40 million money take for March was hugely important and well understood by the supers.

The only reason the race is still on-going is the media buy the Clinton line (lie?) that the race is close. They have to make this argument because what else have they got, but the media does not have to buy this nonsense. Next week I think is going to be very brutal for her–her tax returns, Mark Penn’s resignation will be all over tomorrow fueling rumors of her near term demise, and more stories like this of the superdelegates clearly not thrilled of jumping on the board the Bandwagon Clinton. Oh and more stories about her lack of “fact telling”.

She has got some serious bad press coming her way this week. I’m still skeptical but maybe Pennsyvlania is not out of reach. I still think Obama’s best shot is to campaign hard in Pennsylvania but continue to downplay expectations, make known they will seat Michigan 50/50 and Florida 1/2 delegate count based on vote totals and then call Clinton’s bluff publicly on her “disenfranchisement” meme.

Then really invest heavily in Indiana. I think that affords a better knockout chance than Penn. He will absolutely obliterate her in North Carolina and that with even a small win in Indiana on the same night (Super Tuesday III) will be the end of the Clinton run.

The only thing left now is a knockout punch, even a punch that dazes her, the supers will join en masse and referee and declare a TKO.  The supers don’t want this one as Chuck Todd said to go to a decision.  They want a knockout punch and I think Indiana is the place, if not Pennsylvania first.

But the media would love to play (a la New Hampshire, Super Tuesday I, and Ohio/TX) the Hillary is almost out, Obama is predicted to win and the tough scrapper comes back (“finds her voice”, “the nation is coming back”) etc.  That’s why I would still keep the Penn upset talk down for now.  Let the media continue to grill her in the next week or so.

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Published in: on April 6, 2008 at 10:47 pm  Leave a Comment  
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