Last Thoughts Pennsylvania

It would have been nice to see him get the margin down to 6. But Clinton is Clinton so I doubt that would have mattered too much.

Check out this Chuck Todd analysis.

He makes two very key points.

1)The Popular Vote. Obama needs to run up the score in North Carolina which I think he can definitely do.

Clinton nabbed a 200,000 vote or so win tonight, cutting Obama’s popular vote total from 700,000 to 500,000. Todd then counts Florida for Clinton (controversial but let’s go there) which gives her an extra 300,000.

So that leaves her 200,000 short.

Except that Obama could in a big NC scenario (even 10 points) gets 150,000 back. Or worse for Clinton could get back all the 200,000.

Putting her back (even including Florida) 400,000. Which means she’s done. She’ll win KY and West Virginia. But not 400,000 votes worth. Sounds like Mark Penn is still around at Camp Clinton because there new goalposts don’t even work for them (oh TX is our firewall, I guess we should have learned how delegates were apportioned there???!!!).

Todd raises the possibility of Clinton picking off Oregon. Fat chance–Forget it. Anti-war, Northwest (see how he did in Washington state), information economy, more secular/not a lot of traditional religious white voters. A state with small black population (Obama wins big black population and miniscule black population but not in-between like Penn). All that=Obama win (big).

2)A professor friend of Todd’s says that Obama has perhaps pulled a Reagan-Soviet move. By putting major chips in Pennslyvania, he forced her to spend the piggy bank, which got her a victory but very likely a Pyhrric one. [If you click on her website (seriously go do this) it automatically sends you to a splash page for donations. If that doesn’t say everything that needs to be said what does]. Reagan–following this analogy–upped the military spending causing the Soviets to go bankrupt.

Leaving her exposed for North Carolina and more importantly Indiana.

I’ll say it again–what is she doing in this race. She won’t go out gracefully or otherwise; Obama needs to find something and take it to her and more importantly take it to McCain and show that he is the party nominee and he will win the election. He doesn’t looked spooked by Clinton so much as worn down. He can’t beat her in the dirt–clear from TX, OH, and PN. Nobody can be slimier than Clinton, than excuse me Clintons. He needs to get back to what got him here-that he represents a fresh start, a new way forward. And hit Clinton hard, unyielding on her new foreign policy hawkishness and link her to McCain and Bush.

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Published in: on April 22, 2008 at 10:11 pm  Leave a Comment  
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