On Indiana Primary

As I’ve said repeatedly Indiana is the real state to end this thing.

As Chuck Todd NBC delegate math guru just pointed out Hillary Clinton can not win the delegate race. Whatever else their camp says, they also won’t win the popular vote count–not that popular vote count actually matters by hey since they brought it up, there’s the answer.

There is no way for her to win the nomination. Why does the media not just call her BS on this? There is no major group of superdelegates waiting in the shadows convinced that her “big states” theory or electability cred is radically different than Obama’s. Note that in the nationwide Dem polls, Obama is up 10% on her. And the general election polls this far out are essentially useless but to the degree you look at them, they go back and forth but have generally favored Obama over McCain.

Now here’s what you won’t hear (I’m betting) in the analysis tonight on the cable news.

Every state–and I mean every state–in this race that Obama has gone to, spent time, spent money in, had rallies, meetings, etc. he gains. Hillary in the states she wins–as tonight in Pennsylvania–she starts off with a 20% advantage, Obama cuts into it (if he can campaign there), but doesn’t break all the way through and loses by Clinton holding out.

Problem for Clinton–she never has beaten Obama when he was ahead in the polling going into a state. In TX she started out 20ish ahead, it got very tight at the end with a poll or two showing a within-the-margin lead for Obama, she had a mini-push at the end and won. Or not, actually she lost the delegates, but never mind that.

The latest polling has Obama up in Indiana by 5%. He will win Indiana, there’s a prediction. Especially if he has some supers who are going to jump out and endorse him in the next day or two to stem the pro-Clinton media spin. The Clinton camp who just happens to be broke and not paying vendors.

But anyway, I have a hard time seeing with 2 weeks, money out the wazoo, and I think more pressure rising from within the party to end this thing, how she gets a victory. If the state follows form, he wins. The first Indy poll post-Pennsylvania will set some expectations.

It is clear that she will try to take this thing to the convention given any opening and will rip the party in order to achieve what she believes is her divine right. There are stories that Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and Howard Dean (mercifully) are going to force the hand of the superdelegates in June. I’m praying she loses Indiana and NC, then on May 7th, a flood of superd’s comes rushing out, forcing her out.

But I have my doubts–not about Indiana but about her ever getting out. She believes deep down that the US is a Republican country and a Democrat can only win by appearing to be a Republican. She thinks the Democratic Party owes her (and Bill) and that what she is doing now is saving the party from itself by a nomination of Obama.

As I’ve said repeatedly everything points to an Obama victory in the fall except that he is a member of the Democratic Party and only the Democrats could lose this election. That is becoming more likely by the day. Only Ronald Reagan won a third time (George HW Bush’s). George W is no Reagan and why the Democrats would allow him to go down as having won a third term through his proxy (McCain) in the midst of a failing war and recession is beyond my mind.

But that could very well be. May 7th is enough time. July I don’t think is. August (convention) for sure isn’t.

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Published in: on April 22, 2008 at 7:23 pm  Leave a Comment  
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