I Gotta Newsflash for You Walter Cronkite(s)

aka Memo to the Media:

The “Reagan Democrats” have been voting consistently Republican since well uh Reagan.  i.e. 1980, i.e. 28 years.  That makes them Republicans.  Reagan Democrats like the Holy Roman Empire are neither Reaganites (anymore) nor Democrats.

To wit, in Pennsylvania and other primaries (e.g. Ohio) Clinton has not won “the white working class” vote.  She has won white working class Democrats–remember Penn was a closed Democrat-only primary  (h/t VirginiaCentrist commenter on TNR for constantly pointing out this rather obvious fact).

Which leads to final newsflash of the day to the clueless media:

The torrent of speculation about the end game of the Democratic nomination contest is creating a false sense of suspense – and wasting a lot of time of the multitudes who are anxious to know how this contest is going to turn out.

Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that the Pennsylvania primary must have shaken superdelegates planning to support Barack Obama, causing them to rethink their position, key Democrats on Capitol Hill are unbudged.

“I don’t think anyone’s shaken,” a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.

As this blog has long pointed out Clinton does not have a secret stash of superdelegates hanging around.  Particularly among House Democrats, who are following in large measure the Pelosi line (delegates=winner, superd’s do not overturn their choice).  So much so that word is Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) is putting major pressure on the remaining 4 Indiana House Dems not to announce–which of course means they are pulling for Obama.

In other words, as I’ve been saying a bajillion times on this blog, they are just waiting for a knockout punch.  Clinton has I think managed to convince the media that he has to win Indiana (and not just North Carolina) for that to occur.  And she’s probably correct on that point.

So if she wins Indiana then it goes to the end of the primaries and then the supers will break for him when pressured to do so in June.

If you want to enter the mindstream of a Clintonista (warning–could be hazardous to your health), check out this Bloggingheads.  (The Clinton supporter is Jeralyn Merritt  of TalkLeft who I think is just way off on this one, but at least isn’t Taylor Marsh).

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Published in: on April 25, 2008 at 10:12 am  Comments (2)  
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2 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. I’m not sure, but I’m guessing you’re a republican supporter of republican John McCain?
    Just one of your many misstatements in this post: Reagan democrats are DEMOCRATS who voted for Reagan. They are DEMOCRATS who vote DEMOCRATIC on local and state levels.
    They are one group of swing voters, a group that voted, by-and-large, for Bill Clinton. Twice.

  2. Kurt,

    Actually I’m an independent who supports Obama.

    They had not been voting Democratic at the Congressional level since 1994 (until arguably 2006).

    Bill Clinton never broke 50% of the total popular vote either time. My sense was that the Reagan Ds (or a large subset anyway) went for Perot–who is really how Clinton won.

    John Kerry did miserably with this group (the Reagan Democrats) in 2004 and still won Pennsylvania.

    I just don’t buy in general the term Reagan Democrats as helpful. Not in 2008. Not to mentio this continued insistence that if Democrats can’t win this group they can’t win the election. And 2008 is read through the lens of 80, 84, 88.

    Peace. Cj


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