This Week in Selling the Next War, er Strike (Iran)

From Dr. I-Rack at in the indispensable blog Abu Muqawama.

The typical cast of characters that the military-administration is using to get its story out.

Michael Gordon in that awful uber-liberal left-wing anti-America, nerve center of the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy, The NyTimes. Fouad Ajami in the Wall Street Journal.

To quote Hot Shots Part Deux: “War it’s fantastic.”

To reiterate, the Badr Corps/Supreme Council/Dawa crew (aka the Iraqi Govt) were all created in Iran and are deeply entrenched in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Iran it has been shown has trained so-called splinter groups (no longer bound to Sadr) of the Mahdi Army. And there is a black market in weapons. Iran may also be helping non-splinter elements of the Mahdi Army, there has been no evidence to date given of that, other than confessions from captured Mahdi Army soldiers–again intrinsically open to question.

So the real issue is the fight between the Sadrist and the Hakim/Maliki crew, which rather than openly talk about this is all being thrown at Iran’s door. In reality, Iran has its hands in all pots, hedging its bets, though overall more pro-Hakim/Maliki than Sadr.

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Published in: on May 5, 2008 at 11:56 am  Comments (3)  
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3 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. It’s not in Iran’s best interest to destabilize the Shia dominated & highly Iranian influenced government in Iraq. First off, how many Shia dominated states exist Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, everyone else overwhelmingly Sunni. Secondly, Iraq buffers their border and an excellent proxy.

    However, I don’t dispute that Iran is training groups and possibly putting weapons in the black market, however, I think it is being done in preparation of a U.S. attack or invasion. If you think the insurgency in Iraq is something, imagine several highly trained and organized groups and militia acting in unison with Al Quds force towards one goal, not only in Iran but in Iraq as well and let’s not forget their capabilities in Afghanistan. All this equates to a major escalation of war on all fronts, to which the already over-stretched, multiple toured US armed forces will be in an unending quagmire.

    Strategically speaking, Iran’s main goal should be not to over playing its hand and give the US ammunition to build a coalition outside of probably Israel and the Brits.

  2. The US has a history of backing the wrong horse, until it’s painfully obvious, and then undermines that horse for a new thoroughbred.

    Strategically speaking, the US should just sit back and let the Iranian proxies fight it out to further weaken their position and the shia dominated gov’t, after all this is the US’ objectives by paying off, arming and empowering the Awakening Sheikhs to offset the power of the shias.

    The same policy in Iraq it being done in the region as well. Arming and empowering Sunni Countries Saudi, Egypt, and Jordan to offset the power of Shia Iran.

    This is the true reason why Israel and Syria are close to reaching a deal in the Golan Heights. It puts Syria clearly in the Sunni camp and it further isolates Hezbollah from Syrian support in Lebanon and the partnership with Iran.

    However, this means if a problem was to emerge in the Sunni world, the US itself would be neutralized to respond due to the possibilities that its arms and aid will be turned against it, and that its horse will turn against it, which has been the historical pattern of US policy in the region.

    Anyway, that’s my two cents.

  3. e,

    Good point about a possible Iranian insurgency or the training of proxies to unleash on the US in the case of an attack. Totally agreed.

    Also agreed that the US should let the different Shia groups deal with themselves and let Iran play whatever big brother role with them it is bound to.

    The US is totally reactive. No strategy.

    peace. CJ

    PS nice new logo.


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