Liveblogging Dem Primary

Update XIII: 1:11 PM EST.  Clinton does win it.  But loses the night.  I’m signing off.  Peace.

Update XII 12:25 EST. Maddow just went integral–she talked about Clinton as “post-rational.” I think she means pre-rational. She should consult the pre-trans fallacy.

Update XI 12:14 EST. Funny Moment. Russert just said the Clintons were like the “Adams Family” (and then the Roosevelts). It took me a second to realize he meant John and John Quincy not Wednesday, Cousin It, and Uncle Fester. Although maybe the latter is more appropriate?

Update X: 11:57 PM (EST)–These are nights when I’m glad I live on the West Coast. It’s just finally getting totally dark here, only 9 pm. But Russert just said a very shrewd thing. Clinton stays in wins WV next week, then stays in another week wins KY, Obama wins Oregon at which point he will have crossed the threshold whereby he has won the majority of the pledged delegates (primaries and caucuses). That allows Clinton to get out on a high note, on a win, the same night Obama gets to claim victory–via the pledged delegate count. Perfect scenario.

[I should also say the Gary Mayor does looks not great. But the Clinton-verse bloggers, small though they are, are living in a different universe. It hasn’t set in yet that it is over as of tonight. e.g. Here. ]

Update IX 11:44 PM (EST):

Gary is still out. And word from the Mayor on MSNBC was that he was essentially predicting massive massive turnout for Obama. Chuck Todd made an interesting watch for “irregularities” in that vote line that was well said. Perhaps The Resurrection Plan is back in effect. It is near-Chicago after all. [That was when the Mafia had dead people vote for JFK in ’60 in Chicago].

Hold onto your hanging chads. It’s down to 18,000 with 9% remaining pretty much all apparently in Gary.

With 28% in Lake County, Obama is winning 75-25. He needs about 60% to cover the difference. Wow.

Update VIII: 11:20 PM (EST). Best Line of the Night from Poblano:

9:40 PM. Isn’t there something ironic about a candidate who’s only remaining path to the nomination to insist that all votes are counted in Florida and Michigan giving a victory speech before all votes are counted in Indiana — and three of the four major networks say the race is too close to call?

Short answer: Yes.

Little longer: Rachel Maddow contra all the other MSNBC guys (Buchanan, Eugene Robinson, David Gregory, Olbermann, and Matthews) thinks Clinton is going scorched earth–which is why she has raised Michigan and Florida. I think Terry McAuliffe (Clinton’s Co-Chair) raised the bar from needing 2,025 to 2,209 delegates earlier in the night when he thought she was going to have a good night. That formulation I think changes. She is going to meet with her superdelegates tomorrow. They better tell her to face reality.

Update VII: The Obama MI-FL “well seat ’em” meme is already out. Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Camp is playing the magnanimous way–which is smart for tonight. If she tries to hit him

Olbermann just raised the Huckabee parallel possibility. i.e. West Virginia and Kentucky could be like Huckabee’s wins even after he was mathematically eliminated. Further argument to that point here on TPM.

Russert just mentioned Clinton may have loaned herself more money.

This is moving quickly to a wind up. But Clinton needs to stay in, according to Kos, because Obama can’t lose big in WV next week after becoming the nominee. Not good optics.

Harold Ford Jr., who predicted that the winner of North Carolina would be the nominee a month and half ago, also raised the Unity Ticket theme.

Update VI: 10:47. They keep chanting “Hillary, Hill-a-ry” over her. She can’t get them to be quiet and let her talk. It’s kind of this emotional thing–they just want to her to win. No question about how this is going to happen. Although to give her some credit, she has come out saying she will support the Dem candidate (i.e. Obama). She just said this and there was barely a clap or shout. It was weirdly silent.

Now there was a moment where she almost gave a concession. She’s talking nostalgically about how blessed she has been by this admittedly long race. She says she will never give up on them, but sounds (I may be reading too much into this) almost like this is winding down. She is thanking everybody who has helped with the whole campaign. This might be it.

She just made a call to let the junta in Burma to let Aid in. That was effective.

She just thanked Bill and Bill got teary eyed, when he got a big crowd roar. I don’t know this might be the last time you see this political duo, this dynasty. Might be their swan song.

Scratch that, old/evil Hillary is back with a pandering line about FL and MI. Time for Camp Obama to open up their own “nuclear” option on her not being the one to seat them.

Matthews is calling it “charming” and a “political mating game.” It wasn’t shrill. But there was some awful pandering in it.

Update V: 10:38. This is gonna be surreal. Clinton is taking the stage to give….a victory speech is it? We’re gonna find out. Well I guess it is. He takes the high road, she takes the low….for the millionth time. She’s saying Indiana was the tie-breaker between Penn and NC. WTF? She’s now stealing Obama’s slogans and lines. Jesus Christ.

Check that as compared to Donna Brazile (“undeclared not uncommitted superdelegate”):

Brown:

It sounds very much to me tonight like you have made up your mind.

BRAZILE: No. It sounds like I am ready to unify my party. I’m
ready to bring the party back together and I’m sick and tired of hearing
people say my party, my party. This is the Democratic Party. We have
stood through thick and thin and I’m sick of the divisions. That’s all
I’m saying.

Her folk are chanting “Yes We Will.” She is now begging for money in her victory speech. Goodbye superdelegates. This is shameful, pathetic, and sleazy. They have got to see this. Same with Paul Begala, Brazile’s sparring partner in the interview quoted above.

Update IV: 10:14, I caught this too, but McArdle with the quotation:

“Barack Obama says “McCain is using the same tactics that George Bush used to get elected.” Someone in the back of the audience shouts “Hillary too!” Campaign plant or freelancer? We report, you decide.”

Plus North Carolina is the new South Carolina. [i.e. A super-big win for Obama that comes at a nadir moment].

Update III: 9:29 EST. He just had his strongest words of the night and for months in this campaign. Said that he was not unaware of the coming Republican machine/campaign [thereby hitting both McCain and Clinton] but he came into politics to destroy that manner of politics.

This guy if the Democratic Party ever got behind him–you would see him debate against McCain, open up the floodgates of his internet fund collection behemoth, he would beat McCain.

Oh and he’s pulled to within 3% in Indiana. Cut the lead to 40,000 votes. Even Harold Ford on MSNBC said Clinton needs to get out; he also called for a unity-ticket as well. So take that or leave it. He still has all of Gary Indiana out. All of it. And 16% in Marion (Indianapolis). This could get very interesting.

Update II (9:12 EST). Obama just about to begin speaking. Starts out by blasting Clinton through a veiled reference. Interesting. He just thanked Clinton and mentioned her “apparent” victory.

But look out, Indiana has just been moved from too early to call to “too close to call” on MSNBC. I still think Clinton eeks victory out, but remember Missouri where it was called for Clinton and then Obama actually won. Obama is making a serious run on Indy. He’s down 50,000 votes now with about 70% of the vote reported. But hang on, Marion is still about big (where Indy is), no vote at all for Gary. What if closes the gap to less than say 10,000?

Update I: Do you think we will hear a return to the soaring Obama in a victory speech. It’s been awhile. he hasn’t won in awhile. And two, he’s been playing the more low key personae. I wonder. I think he might open ‘er up tonight. We’ll see.

North Carolina is already called for Obama. As I predicted all along, NC would be a big win for NC. Rev. Wright cost Obama Indiana (or at the shot of it). That would have finally put Clinton away.

I also thought it possible that NC could be called early for Obama while Indiana goes on, therefore again having an hour or two of media coverage discussing his win (watching now on MSNBC and this is exactly what is going on).

Interesting that Clinton has done well when she has become her version of a “change” candidate–as opposed to her ludicrous “experience” meme–showing yet again Obama is a better strategist, Clinton though in some ways a better low-ball tactical pol.

But now more talk from the media of why is she in this thing. Superdelegates I think keep rolling to Obama and passes her in superdelegate count sometime within two weeks. Then Clinton is real real trouble.

Clinton wins WV next week, then KY the week after. On the same day as KY, Obama wins Oregon.

After tonight, as Chuck Todd keeps saying, there are more superdelegates left than primary delegates.

He also floats the idea that Camp Obama will make a deal to seat Florida as is. I will reiterate my theory that Camp Obama should float that they have provided a plan to the Rules By-Laws Committee (meeting May 31st) that they would seat Florida as is in exchange for Michigan as tied for delegates (or as is but delegates get 1/2 vote each). They would float the idea that it is Clinton who actually is stopping the seating of MI and FL that if they really wanted only (as they claim) to uphold the voters, they would call their bluff. Namely that what the Clinton campaign really cares about is using those states to get back in the race.

Once FL and MI set, Clinton would have no legs left to stand on. She can win WV and KY but that’s not going to matter much. She will not catch up in the popular vote–if you count Florida and the four caucuses that Obama won which don’t count votes. Especially if he really runs up the score in NC.

Obama looks to win more delegates and erase Clinton’s Penn popular vote gain. Stick a fork in her.


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Published in: on May 6, 2008 at 5:00 pm  Comments (5)  
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5 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. What do you think about his attempts to sell his working class cred and patriotism in the speech? Too blatant, or well played?

  2. Good question. I don’t know. He has spoken about those kinds of things before–particularly how America was this shinning beacon for his father.

    I think he was much stronger on hitting back on this “fear of what the Republicans will do.”

  3. He has, but the long bit about Michelle’s father was an addition to his usual fair about his mother, grandfather and grandmother. The bit about “the America I love, the America you love” I thought was nicely placed, subtle enough but still strong.

    Agreed, nice turn to addressing the campaign of the GOP, really neutralizes her angle about “you know what they’ll say about me.” I guess we know much of what “they’ll” say about him as well now.

    And I know he had to say it, but I liked the way he almost chastised his supporters about the idea that they wouldn’t support Clinton if she’s the nominee. That’s the kind of moral high ground he needs to reclaim.

    That said, he sounds more like a conventional liberal candidate for ever. And I feel like he has slid a great deal in the pitched battle for the meat and potato Dems. Reduces the potential of his bid and sucks a lot of the excitement from my sails (to be blgged about).

  4. for ever = than ever

  5. I hear what you are saying about the conventional lib part. But he would have all kinds of room to swerve when he becomes the nominee. That said, he is a liberal.

    I still think he should perhaps go for Webb.


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