Advice to Camp Obama

1)Don’t be forced into taking Clinton as VP. This could be helped if Clinton decides to attack Obama. Then he stays above it and turns a previous Clinton superdelegate (e.g. George McGovern today) to blast her. Clinton can stay in as long as she only attacks McCain and follows the example of (of all people) Mike Huckabee.

2)As part of your early summer strategy hold gigantic massive rallies in red states to scare the hell outta McCain and throw their not so smart strategic team into disarray. e.g. Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas. Then let Camp McCain think where the hell they should go to play defense. This psychologically would be huge. I keep saying but there only have been hints of it in the media–they have be so focused on these silly GE poll numbers now which are close, which won’t be in the upcoming weeks–that the summer can easily belong to Obama. McCain is not a good campaigner. He has made numerous gaffes during this easy time of no-media scrutiny. The media will at some point go after him and his campaign strategy is really weak.

The rationale behind #2 is the following. Obama has to play less defense in leaning/closely Democratic states. e.g. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Washington. Obama no doubt has some work to do in the Michigan, Penn., Ohio rust-belt, but if he can get McCain off balance by playing a cat and mouse game of poaching in McCain territory, then McCain is forced to play defense in areas he can’t afford to. That leaves Obama time to unleash money and organization in the rust-belt (his only major deficiency geographically).

McCain is not ready for the money-organizational goliath about to be unleashed upon him. As I’m said repeatedly, Obama is built for a general election not a primary. I think if Obama gets in a groove come summer, with all the intra-party stuff long behind him by the convention, he’s odds on favorite. Especially after we have some debates with a guy 30 years younger than his opponent again built for the media age. McCain’s lack of policy understanding will show mightily–particularly on domestic policy–not to mention his double/triple down position on Iraq. McCain will increasingly look like a past his prime, out of touch candidate.

Afterthought: It occurs to me that the media is focused on which superdelegates will wait to be the final ones to push Obama over the 2,025 threshold. But it seems to me looking at the results from today already–where Obama has gained 4 superd’s total–that a better ploy for those with medium range influence [House D’s?] would be to become the superdelegate or two who push Obama into the lead among superdelegates over Clinton. In other words, right now the count according to First Read the current count is Clinton +13 on superdelegates. We know Obama has already passed her on political superdelegates (i.e. Govs, Reps, Senators) whereas Clinton holds an edge with party establishment, hence her overall superdelegate–but not overall delegate [got that right?}–lead.

So I think you want to be the one who has Obama pushed into the lead in superdelegates. Which at this rate would happen in about 3 days. No one I think in the media has mentioned this yet but once Obama passes Clinton in superdelegates, with his already commanding lead in pledged delegates, the chorus for her to get out will become even greater. And/or she is just simply ignored which she should be at this point.

Published in: on May 7, 2008 at 10:41 am  Comments (1)  
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  1. […] May 9, 2008 superd’s update Posted by cjsmith under Politics, US-Domestic | Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton |   To quote Stephen Colbert, “I called it.”  Here. […]

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