Iraq Update: Sons Not Welcome Into The Family

[Photo of Iraqi Local Security Force from Flickr poster onekingdown27 via Creative Commons License]

Following up on the reporting from the always excellent Leila Fadel in McClatchy, Richard Oppel Jr in the NyTimes points out the Shia goverment in Baghdad is going after the Sunni Awakening movement.

This is really dangerous stuff. Maliki is feeling his oats against both the Sadrists and now wants to take down the Awakening in an attempt–Weberian style–to gain a monopoly on all forms of violence in Iraq. Reconciliation, smeconciliation. Remember of all the possible outcomes of Iraq one of them is a returned dictator (the others being a Lebanon-ization, a Bosnia-ization, or a total slaughter of the Sunni). Maliki is pushing for the latter.

The American military is worried but unfortunately (as per the usual) translates that worry into fear of Salafi jihadism:

“If it is not handled properly, we could have a security issue,” said Brig. Gen. David Perkins, the senior military spokesman in Iraq. “You don’t want to give anybody a reason to turn back to Al Qaeda.” Many Sunni insurgents had previously been allied with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and other extremist groups.

Now certainly the Sunni insurgency could return to a temporary alliance of convenience with the Salafi movement as was the case in 2004-2006. They could of course just as easily align with the Mahdi Army (again: Lebanon-ization of Iraq where militias cross ethnic and religious lines in terms of alliances and fights).

But even if they did reunite with al-Qaeda, the reason they would do so would be to fight their real enemy: The Shia government. Not because they care about some ludicrous never gonna happen Caliphate vision.

Exhibit A:

“Some people from the government encouraged us to fight against Al Qaeda, but it seems that now that Al Qaeda is finished they don’t want us anymore,” said Abu Marouf, who, according to American officials, was a powerful guerrilla leader in the 1920s Revolutionary Brigade west of Baghdad. “So how can you say I am not betrayed?”

This was inevitable. The Shia were and are never going to accept the Awakening. They are never going to see them as anything other than a rogue force with the potential of reinstating the Sunni. Remember Maliki is paranoid by all accounts. He lived in exile ducking assassination attempts and sees himself as the defender of the Shia (The Shia Dawa) in a sea of Sunni-ism to his West.

While I can understand the position of the US army and having to de facto accept the militia-ization of Iraq, this game of trying to prop up a government and pretend there was some reconciliation to be had was always a fraud and Maliki is calling the bluff–telling the US to get out and let them him deal as he wants to with the Awakening/Sons of Iraq.

Whatever Obama’s plans for regional dialog and such (which I think are valid), events are conspiring from within on Iraqi terms to suggest that it might not really matter. There may be nothing that can be done except prevent other countries from joining in in the next round of bloodshed.

Published in: on August 22, 2008 at 6:44 am  Comments (2)  
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  1. I am doing a lot of research on this tied into a study being done on recent suicide bombings in Wah (pak weapons base)and Pakita(us mil base), Sorbai (french). I haver found 4 cities that are to be hit tomorrow in a present day news article. I have traced back the data to Iran and the IRC Quds forces linked in to the Mehdi army in Iran now linked in to 20 Iranian terror camps. 4 are now active with Mehdi army members that are splitting off into 4 newer faction names , now not loyal to Sheites in Iraq, but only to Iranian style of thinking of overtaking Iraq as well. This data I found says the forces in Iran will graduate in any day and are planning to destabalize Iraq again (although bombings have been minimal lately) and also into Afghansitan and Pakitan to back up the Pakitani Taliban and Hikrt-i-Jihadi led by Guadilmyer Heckimyer. You are right these are some very dangerous elements, but I have isolated possibly four cells and the cities they are in tonight linked to the suicide bnombers networks in Afghan / Pak areas.

  2. 4 newer faction names , now not loyal to Sheites in Iraq, but only to Iranian style of thinking of overtaking Iraq

    this part of my article above is tied into your style of thinking as an attack on the sons of … Sunnis tribes. I have linked in to a Sheite site in Iran that has ties to the IRG and the QUDS forces backtracking it to far as back as 2004. The data there ties into a pending investigation of threats against israel also after elections that might lead to nuclear implications. It had some very usefull information pertaining to my research dig that mesches with what I am researching linked tot he hizbullah interests of destabalizing iraq and afghanistan as well as overthwing pakistan at this time due to the fact their leader is bombing SWAT and NWFP.

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