There Will Be No (Convention) Bounce

Deft analysis by Bill Scher on why we shouldn’t expect a bounce from the conventions, VP picks, etc. They might just act more as a reset button.

That said, the Republicans are going to be beyond brutal v Obama in their convention. I guess the Obama Camp hopes that something nut job crazy comes out of someone’s mouth. Might happen but they better not be banking on it.

Because bounce or no bounce, this has not been a particularly good convention so far. We’ll see what Obama can do. For all the summer I thought it was 60/40 Obama but it has certainly gone down to 50/50 and maybe under 50 for Obama at this point.

He still has a strong advantage in the electoral college and the race doesn’t really start, as they say, until after the conventions. Obama needs badly to ace the debates. Keep his cool but add some steel and be merciless in sticking the knife in McCain. Goad him into getting angry and off-topic because once he gets into that mode, he’ll make some serious error.

But they have ceded the offensive position to McCain to be sure. Perhaps they are thinking that there is a finite supply on this attacking (i.e. rope a dope strategy) but if they are thinking such a thing, they are going to pay for it. Not in a 24/7 Cable News World. Not when McCain is using the Media as free advertisement for lying ads. Like today’s on Iran.

Camp Obama appears to be putting too many eggs in the basket of voter turnout. A little unnerving I would say.

But things can change on a dime. Camp BO has to be hoping McCain picks either Romney (good for them) or Lieberman (great for Obama). I wouldn’t underestimate how dumb McCain is as a politician–he’s only done as well as he has given he had a Rove Lt. in Schmidt. If he picks Lieberman, all bets are off.

Update I: All that taken into account, these are extremely good numbers for Obama. It continues to appear that McCain’s only real route to victory involves an upset in Michigan. If Obama has PENN and NM locked down which I think he does (and these numbers confirm) plus Iowa, then without Michigan he is at 243. With Michigan he is sitting at 260.

In the scenario where Obama wins Michigan, then McCain basically has to run the table on Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada (down in the poll just cited), Florida, and Indiana. If McCain wins Michigan, then he puts serious pressure on Obama. Obama would then have to win Florida. Or NH, Ohio, and Colorado.

But if Obama can’t win Michigan, he is not going to win Ohio. Having lived in both of those states, Obama’s advantage is Michigan. Just as if Obama wins North Carolina he will already have won Virginia. Also, if McCain loses Colorado, he only has a 5% chance of winning according to the Obama Camp’s numbers.

If the election pushes 1-2% points in Obama’s favor nationwide, then North Carolina, Alaska, and Montana are in play.

For the best electoral mapping, here.

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Published in: on August 27, 2008 at 1:14 pm  Leave a Comment  
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