This is Huge: Electoral Edition

Jonathan Martin at Politico is reporting that:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

Nate Silver at 538 yesterday said re: McCain:

My gut instinct if I were the McCain campaign is that it might be time to pick one of Pennsylvania and Michigan — whichever state my internals liked better — and consolidate my offense there.

Mike Allen also at Politico (h/t HuffPost) notes that the McCain camp says their fate rests on winning either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Minnesota.  The latter two are out.  McCain is not going to win those states or if he does, he will already have won Penn.  Meaning it looks like following Silver’s advice, they are going Penn for Penn Ave.  Except that if you like at the 538 state polls for Penn yesterday, Obama is up +5/+6 in multiple ones.  He has a better ground game in Pennsylvania as well.

McCain doesn’t have a prayer.  I suggested that when the raced tightened after the Palin pick that things could change quickly and all that was needed was something to break Obama’s way (the shift to economic concerns) and he could be headed for serious victory (a la Clinton ’96) territory. Obviously it could shift back, but Obama’s built-in advantages are really coming into play so long as the discussion is not about “Is Obama a Celebrity” or other nonsense.

Obama only needs 2/3 out the Penn-Ohio-Michigan trifecta.  Michigan apparently is now in the bag.  Pennsylvania looks to be.  Ohio would iceing on the cake.  As I’ve been saying for a long time (even during the race tightening prior to the debates/economic downturn), Obama because of his strength in Iowa and New Mexico (two Bush states in 2004) starts off the election with 260 votes.  Only 10 away.  [Unlike pollster.com, I give Obama Minnesota, in his lean category].

That puts essentially nine states in tossup category–only two of which New Hampshire and Nevada–have less than the nine votes Obama needs for a 269-269 tie.  The rest (other than Colorado) have more than 9.  In other words, McCain has to win 8 out of those 9 states to win the election.

Two words.  Good and Luck.

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Published in: on October 2, 2008 at 3:14 pm  Leave a Comment  
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