Draft Iraq-US Security Agreement

Agreed to in principle.  Patrick Cockburn has the details.

Iraq and the United States have finally agreed on a security pact which would mean that US forces would withdraw from Iraq by 2011, American and Iraqi officials said yesterday.

And snuck at the bottom but extremely important:

The US has given ground on crucial issues. On the legal immunity of American troops Mr Dabbagh said: “Inside their bases, they will be under American law. Iraqi judicial law will be implemented in case these forces commit a serious and deliberate felony outside their military bases and when off duty.” Contractors, who have more men in Iraq than the US army, will no longer have immunity.

That last line is huge and I’m imagining the Private Military Contractors (PMCs) are going to start a pullout because their deal of legal immunity from Iraqi prosecution is a huge selling point on their side.  If some PMCs are still going to go, their asking price just went way up.

The US will hold soldiers more and more on bases to prevent prosecution, even the possibility of a scenario where civilians might accidentally be killed/wounded.

Because Iraqi justice is hanging gallows justice.  What this point towards, is what Thomas Ricks said might occur during Act 4 of the 5 Act Iraqi tragedy/drama that is about to unfold (The Surge was Act III).  In Act IV, which is the draw down/pull out of Iraq (which was inevitable, contra whatever “victory” talk McCain is on about) the Iraqis have to be seen to be anti-US, particularly Maliki and Crew, in the coming fight for who is going to control the country.

Maliki (as Cockburn notes) went to see Ayatollah Sistani (the guy who forced the US to have elections remember and ended Bremer’s tenure) and Sistani ok’ed the deal.  So it looks as if it will have no real problem passing through Parliament.

Readers will know that I am quite fearful that the Civil War is only in a kinda slowdown/temporary truce moment and the second the US starts major pull out, it’s bound to re-ignite.  I’m hope I’m wrong, but there is a 2 year window Obama has to try to manage some political arrangement, regional in character, that will prevent bodies in the street.  I just don’t see how the Sunni Tribes do not go after the Shia government/army.   The Sunnis have no chance of winning.  Iraq is now a Shia country essentially forever going forward.  Kurdistan has its more or less independence.  Even the Turks had to recognize it the other day.

But the Sunnis can do a lot of damage and are not going to take minority/out of power/dominance by the Shia lightly.  That is the ones who have left (the millions who have already fled and the hundreds of thousands who are already dead obviously aren’t part of that scenario).

I’ve also said that I think the only thing that might be salvagable is preventing the violence from spilling over into a regional war.  Which is the why the Turkish meeting with the Kurdish regional government is so important.

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Published in: on October 16, 2008 at 11:34 am  Leave a Comment  
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